Majlinda Godolja
- University of Tirana, Faculty of Economy, Rruga Arben Broci, 1, 1001, Tirana, Albania
Arjola Sinani
- University of Vlora “Ismail Qemali”, Faculty of Technical and Natural Sciences, Rruga Kosova, 9400, Vlora, Albania
Abstract:
Accurate forecasting of hotel bookings is crucial for optimizing dynamic pricing strategies and ensuring efficient resource management in the hospitality industry. This study analyses daily booking data from a hotel from Vlora, Albania, covering two distinct periods: June 2021 - April 2022 and May 2022 - January 2023. It evaluates the performance of two widely used forecasting models: SARIMA, known for its robustness in capturing seasonal patterns, and Prophet, recognized for its flexibility in handling irregularities and holiday effects. Forecast accuracy and stability are analyzed using key performance metrics (MAE, MSE, RMSE, R²), with Monte Carlo simulations providing additional insights into forecast variability under different scenarios and enhancing the reliability assessment of each model. The findings reveal that model performance varies across different periods, highlighting the need for a dynamic model selection approach that adapts to evolving booking trends. These insights offer practical guidance for hotel managers, supporting improved reservation management and data-driven pricing strategies to enhance overall operational efficiency
Tenth International Scientific-Business Conference LIMEN Leadership, Innovation, Management and Economics: Integrated Politics of Research - LIMEN 2024 - International Scientific-Business Conference – LIMEN 2024: Vol 10. Conference Proceedings , December 5, 2024
Conference Proceedings published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia
ISBN: 9788680194929 , ISSN: 26836149 , DOI: 10.31410/LIMEN.2024
Creative Commons Non Commercial CC BY-NC: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission.
