Blerta Mjeda
- POLIS University, Faculty of Planning, Environment and Urban Management, Rr. Bylis 12, Autostrada TiranΓ«-DurrΓ«s km. 5, Tirana, Albania
Emi Hoxholli
- POLIS University, Faculty of Planning, Environment and Urban Management, Rr. Bylis 12, Autostrada TiranΓ«-DurrΓ«s km. 5, Tirana, Albania
Merita Toska
- POLIS University, Faculty of Planning, Environment and Urban Management, Rr. Bylis 12, Autostrada TiranΓ«-DurrΓ«s km. 5, Tirana, Albania
Abstract:
The oil industry is among the oldest sectors in Albania. Due to the limited research conducted in the country, this study aims to contribute to expanding the existing literature and empirical insights. The goal of this research is to provide opportunities for better-informed decision-making. While understanding the past is relatively straightforward, forecasting the future is more challenging. This inherent uncertainty creates numerous issues when developing a financial plan for a company. This paper analyzes modeling and simulation techniques used in decision-making for petroleum projects. To achieve our objectives, we first examine the challenges of risk and uncertainty, as both significantly influence the decision-making process at the beginning of investment projects. Accurately predicting risk and uncertainty is essential for any company. To define and explore the concepts of βriskβ and βuncertainty,β we have applied qualitative and quantitative approaches, including Sensitivity Analysis and the Monte Carlo Method. Using these methods, we predict different scenarios for the Net Present Value and work towards optimizing the Net Present Value. As a result, we calculate the Net Present Value for petroleum production in each scenario
Tenth International Scientific-Business Conference LIMEN Leadership, Innovation, Management and Economics: Integrated Politics of Research - LIMEN 2024 - International Scientific-Business Conference β LIMEN 2024: Vol 10. Conference Proceedings , December 5, 2024
Conference Proceedings published by: Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia
ISBN: 9788680194929 , ISSN: 26836149 , DOI: 10.31410/LIMEN.2024
Creative Commons Non Commercial CC BY-NC: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission.
