Rita Silva – Escola Superior de Ciências Empresariais – Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal, Portugal
Rui Dias – Escola Superior de Ciências Empresariais – Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal, Portugal & CEFAGE, Universidade de Évora, Portugal
Paula Heliodoro – Escola Superior de Ciências Empresariais – Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal, Portugal
Paulo Alexandre – Escola Superior de Ciências Empresariais – Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal, Portugal
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/LIMEN.S.P.2020.15
6th International Scientific-Business Conference – LIMEN 2020 – Leadership, Innovation, Management and Economics: Integrated Politics of Research – SELECTED PAPERS, Online/virtual, November 26, 2020, published by the Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade; Printed by: SKRIPTA International, Belgrade, ISBN 978-86-80194-40-0, ISSN 2683-6149, DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/LIMEN.S.P.2020
Abstract
The World Health Organization (WHO) has designated the new coronavirus infection as a global pandemic, based on the risk of contagion, and the number of confirmed cases in more than 195 countries. COVID-19 has an intense impact on the global economy, resulting from uncertainty and pessimism, with adverse effects on financial markets. Due to these events, this essay aims to estimate if the portfolio’s diversification is feasible in the financial markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand (ASEAN-5), in the context of the global pandemic (Covid-19), regarding the period of July 1, 2019, to July 22, 2020. To achieve such an analysis, is intended to provide answers for two questions, namely: i) the global pandemic (Covid-19) has accentuated financial integration between the ASEAN-5 markets? ii) If so, can the persistence of returns affect the risk diversification of portfolios? The results obtained suggest that those regional markets present accentuated levels of integration. However, the Singapore’s stock market index does not show any level of integration, indicating that the implementation of portfolio’s diversification strategies can be considered; however, the same can no longer be evident for the other ASEAN-5 markets. Additionally, we verified that the ASEAN-5 markets indicate persistence in returns, that is, the presence of accentuated long memories, except for the Singapore market (SGX). These findings show that prices do not fully reflect the information available and that changes in prices are not independent and identically distributed. This situation is found for investors, since some returns can be expected, creating opportunities for arbitrage and abnormal earnings. Corroborating the trendless cross-correlation coefficients (𝜆𝐷𝐶𝐶𝐴), proven evidence coefficients, mostly, suggest the existence of risk transmission between markets. In conclusion, the authors seek that the implementation of an efficient diversification strategy for portfolios requires agreement with the controversial application. These conclusions also open space for the regulators of these regional markets to take measures to ensure better information between these markets and international markets.
Keywords
ASEAN 5, Covid-19, Financial integration, Portfolio risk diversification.
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