Kitty Klacsánová – Comenius University in Bratislava, Faculty of Management Odbojárov 10, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
Mária Bohdalová – Comenius University in Bratislava, Faculty of Management Odbojárov 10, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/LIMEN.S.P.2019.61
5th International Scientific-Business Conference – LIMEN 2019 – Leadership, Innovation, Management and Economics: Integrated Politics of Research – SELECTED PAPERS, Graz, Austria, December 12, 2019, published by the Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade; Printed by: SKRIPTA International, Belgrade, ISBN 978-86-80194-27-1, ISSN 2683-6149, DOI: https://doi.org/10.31410/LIMEN.S.P.2019
Abstract
Shifts in the values of macroeconomic indicators influencing the exchange rate of a particular
currency may signal future monetary policy decisions. Several problems or opportunities can be
exposed in terms of international trade, investment and other activities involving the conversion of a
country’s currency by monitoring the macroeconomic development. This paper aims to analyze a wide
range of macroeconomic indicators with a potential effect on exchange rate movements in the Visegrad
Group between 2000 and 2017. It provides an overview of economic indicators with a significant impact
on the volatility of four currencies, the Czech crown, Hungarian forint, Polish zloty and the euro
against US Dollar. The presented exchange rate models incorporate the USD/EUR since the Slovak
Republic is part of the Eurozone. The paper analyzes the contribution of the Slovak Republic to the development
of the euro as well as the importance of various endogenous and exogenous macroeconomic
indicators in the Visegrad Group’s exchange rate determination. The paper tests besides the traditional
influence factors the relevance of economic complexity and corruption, which do not serve as a focal
point in empirical exchange rate theories. The findings indicate that the end year spot exchange rates
of the Czech crown, Hungarian forint and the euro, are merely influenced by the GDP per capita measured
in current prices. For this reason, they have a significant role in predicting exchange rate movements
across the Visegrad Group. Additionally, the last chapter compares the results of the employed
methods. Overall, regarding the values of explained variance and the root mean square of error, the
paper points out that the models established for the Czech crown and the euro are the most accurate.
Keywords
Indicator, GDP, Regression, Outliers, Complexity.
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